The Chris Johnson Arguement: "B-O-B" vs. "The Realist"

Is he telling the truth?





Sent by Louis Ferrier aka "B-O-B" to Dario Mobley aka "The Realist" :

I know we started this argument in the preseason, but the season has started and the trend has continued into the season. Chris Johnson WILL NOT be the beast you think he is this year. He looked last night exactly has he has looked in the preseason. Plenty of runs of little to negative gain and couple of respectable runs. I am only doing this because you have insisted that he will be a beast again this year and I should even consider taking him in fantasy.

Preseason
Game 1 Buf 6 carries 17 Yards Long carry of 16 yards w/o long carry 5 carries 1 yard
Game 2 TB 7 carries 7 Yards Long carry of 5 yards w/o long carry 6 carries 2 yards
Game 3 DAL 2 carries 3 Yards Long carry of 3 years w/o long carry 1 carry 0 yards
Game 4 CLE 7 carries 27 Yards Long Carry of 8 Yards w/o long carry 6 carries 19 yards
Game 5 GM 3 carries 23 yards Long Carry of 13 Yards w/o long carry 2 carries for 10 yards

Regular Season
Game 1 Pit 15 carries 57 yards long carry of 32 w/o long carry 14 carries 25 yards


Breakdown of the last nights game.
1st Qtr
28-C.Johnson up the middle to TEN 2 for no gain
28-C.Johnson left end to TEN 4 for -2 yards
28-C.Johnson right end to TEN 43 for 32 yards Resulted in no points
28-C.Johnson left end to PIT 19 for 3 yards
28-C.Johnson up the middle to PIT 43 for 1 yard

2nd Qtr
28-C.Johnson left tackle to PIT 34 for -2 yards
28-C.Johnson up the middle to PIT 13 for -1 yards

3rd Qtr
28-C.Johnson right guard to TEN 28 for 7 yards Resulted in no points
28-C.Johnson right guard to TEN 45 for 17 yards Resulted in no points
28-C.Johnson left tackle to TEN 6 for 1 yard
28-C.Johnson left end to TEN 6 for no gain
28-C.Johnson right end to TEN 4 for -2 yards

4th Qtr
28-C.Johnson right end to PIT 49 for -1 yards
28-C.Johnson left tackle to PIT 32 for 2 yards
28-C.Johnson up the middle to TEN 6 for 2 yards


I am not a hater I am just have not been impressed with this dude and don't understand all the hype. He had a good season this year but I am talking about what he is going to do this year. 56 of his 57 yards came on three carries and none of those drives resulted in scores. I am not into taking away the big carries but:

12 carries for 1 Yard
3 carries for 56 Yards.




Is he hating?





Response By The Realist:



I not only think but I know that you are hating because you think by saying that he is not that good somehow makes Reggie Bush look better. You don't talk sports with your mind. You talk with your heart and then you conjure up statistics to support your bias opinion.

Yes, Johnson had 15 carries for 57 yards with a 3.8 YPC but he had 16 carries for 69 yards with a 4.3 YPC against Pittsburgh last year. Why is that?

Well, do you think that it was because Pittsburgh had the number one rush defense and overall defense in the league last year?

They did not give up a single 100 yard rusher and they only gave up 5 total team 100 yard games. They held 3 of the top ten rushing teams last year (NYG, WAS, NE) to less than 100 yards. Also, the 2 out of the five teams that had 100 yards rushing were held significantly under their average:

Tennessee average- 130.9 against Pit - 117
Baltimore average - 148.5 against Pit - 103 & 112
New England average - 142.4 against Pit - 122

Cleveland was the other team that had 100 yards as a team. They were not in the top ten in rushing last year though.

Secondly, Chris Johnson rushed for 1228 yards with a 4.9 YPC and 9 touchdowns and his season should have been better from a touchdown perspective. It is only fair to look at it that way since that is what you seem to stress about Reggie Bush.

Lendale White had 773 yards with a 3.9 YPC with 15 rushing touchdowns and 14 of them were under 10 yards.(1,1,2,1,1,80,6,2,1,1,2,6,2,3,1) Chris Johnson had 9 rushing touchdowns and only 4 of them were under 10 yards.(1,6,66,16,3,6,58,25,21) Chris Johnson is the primary back because he had the most carries so let's just say that Chris Johnson gets 7 of White's 1 yard touchdowns. That puts Chris Johnson at 16 rushing touchdowns for the year which would have been third behind Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams who both had more carries than Johnson. We used that argument for Reggie Bush so we should do the same for Chris Johnson.

Thirdly, speaking of DeAngelo Williams, he was the only person with more than 250 carries that had a higher YPC than Chris Johnson. Additionally, Johnson had the fourth highest YPC out of everyone in the league behind Derrick Ward, D. Williams and Brandon Jacobs.

Just for your information, your beloved Matt Forte who is again loved by your heart and not your mind averaged 3.3 YPC.

Now, if you had any concrete or even close to logical evidence why Johnson is not and will not be good, I may think about it and take your opinion into consideration but you seem to think Adrian Peterson is not good so excuse me if I take your opinions with a grain of salt.

Let’s look at Tennessee a little further so I can fully prove my point. They did not lose one starter on the offensive line and they have effectively added Nate Washington and Kenny Britt to stretch the field so that will somewhat prevent defenses from stacking the box against Tennessee. Also, you saw Bo Scaife last night and Kerry Collins (you said it yourself) is much more stable of a quarterback (not better though) and can make all the throws so that is more evidence that Johnson will continue to flourish. I don’t see where you have anything that makes sense that will cause Chris Johnson to sink into obscurity.

Part of your argument is that I should take out his long runs and then I will see that he is not that good. Okay, let's take Bo Jackson's (who is one of your favorite running backs) 38 yard run against Seattle on December 17,1989 and he only has 11 carries for 31 yards for a 2.8 YPC. We should also probably take out Barry Sanders' (who is probably your favorite) 37 yard run against The Giants on October 19, 1997 and he only has 23 carries for 68 yards with a 2.9 YPC.


















It sounds pretty ludicrous with you look at it like that. A guy with a high YPC has to have his long runs taken out to prove.....Well, I don't know what you are proving but I guess it sounds good to you and sounds good for Reggie Bush.

Oh, and by the way, Chris Johnson was the primary weapon last year for Tennessee so don’t try to use the excuse that he has more weapons around him and that is why he is flourishing because he did it last year without those weapons. Additionally, if weapons transalate into success, Reggie Bush would come close to your 2100 total yards prediction. Right?

Is Chris Johnson a rookie? Yes. Does he still have a lot to prove? Yes. However, with his fastest time ever at the combine for a running back, crazy agility and his YPC last year, all the signs point to him being a very good back.




Also, if he is overrated, what is Reggie Bush? Who has the most commercials and is in the public eye all the time? I believe overrated is getting unjust exposure when you are not producing on the court or field. Matt Leinart, Danica Patrick, Ann Kournikova, Michelle Wie and Rick Fox come to mind when I think of overrated, overexposed and marginal at their respective sports. Let’s hope Reggie does not follow their lead.

The Realist was actually created by you back in 2006 and you have to know I will come back with statistics and facts to clear up any confusion.